How would decision makers react in a nuclear crisis?

Event Date: 26th November 2025
Location: Main Hall, International Politics Building, Aberystwyth

How would decision makers react in a nuclear crisis? Would they remain cool, rationally calculating actors or would this assumption behind much of nuclear strategy melt away under the intense pressure of a crisis situation? These are existential questions and exploring them is of interest not only to every student of international politics, but to everyone on the planet.

The questions will be addressed in this year’s Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture on Wednesday, 26 November, at 6:00PM (Main Hall, International Politics Building, Aberystwyth).

Professor Sharon Weiner’s lecture – Deterrence, Nuclear Strategy, and the Realities of Human Choice – will show how U.S. nuclear strategy in particular places decision makers in a quagmire. In a crisis, a decision maker has mere minutes to weigh the pros and cons of different retaliatory options, the likely adversary response, and the impact on national security and humans. Deterrence theory assumes such choices are based on a rational and analytical assessment of the pros and cons of different options. But empirical evidence from a survey experiment and Virtual Reality simulation overwhelmingly suggests that emotion and intuition play preponderant roles and that the preferences of the decision maker may be created on the spot.

We are extremely fortunate to welcome Professor Sharon Weiner (American University, Washington, DC) to Aberystwyth. She is the world’s leading authority on nuclear crisis decision-making. She is the lead co-author of the famous experiment  The Nuclear Biscuit  which uses Virtual Reality experience to understand decision-making during a nuclear crisis. Professor Weiner has published widely on issues of nuclear policy as well as U.S. civil-military relations. She is the author of Managing the Military: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and Civil Military Relations (Columbia University Press, 2022) and Our Own Worst Enemy? Institutional Interests and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Expertise (MIT Press, 2011). She has extensive policy experience having worked in both houses of the U.S. Congress, the Executive Office of the President of the United States, and the Pentagon’s Joint Staff. She holds a PhD in political science from MIT.

There will also be a follow-up seminar with Professor Weiner on Thursday, 27 November, at 11:00-12:00 (West Room, International Politics Building).

The Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture is jointly supported by the journal International Relations and the David Davies Memorial Institute of International Studies.

We look forward to seeing you at the lecture. All welcome!

Jan

Jan Ruzicka
Lecturer in Security Studies
Director, David Davies Memorial Institute

Department of International Politics
Aberystwyth University
Penglais Campus
Aberystwyth
SY23 3FE, United Kingdom

Phone: +44 (0)1970 628673
E-mail: [email protected]