Iran’s nuclear potential can be cut, but not eliminated

Iran is today much closer to having the material it needs to build a nuclear weapon—perhaps only a few weeks away if it chose to do so—than it was when President Trump violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or indeed when the agreement was first implemented in 2015. The JCPOA was negotiated to put in place a one-year gap between any decision by Iran to acquire enough material for a weapon and the ability to produce one. As a result of the expertise Iran has built since President Trump violated the deal by re-imposing sanctions without cause, it now appears all but impossible to recreate a one-year breakout timeline. Any new deal will likely have a shorter “breakout period” but would still likely be an improvement over the very short fuse that exists today.