Trident Ploughshares: Has Putin destroyed the nuclear world order?

This is a really good piece by Siegfried Hecker on the point raised.  https://thebulletin.org/2022/04/siegfried-hecker-putin-has-destroyed-the-world-nuclear-order-how-should-the-democracies-respond/#post-heading

“A very thought provoking interview (circa 8.20 am) this morning on R4’s Today programme with Fiona Hill – British born American specialising in European & Russian affairs who worked in Downing St & the US White House – which is well worth listening to for the breadth of her knowledge and observations about President Putin & the Ukrainian war.

She made 3 (among many) particular points that struck home with me:

> 1. A man such as Putin, whose hatred of anyone who opposes him leads to State organised assassination, will have no qualms or conscience of doing likewise with a State that similarly opposes or he feels threatened by i.e. Ukraine.
>
> 2. His threat of use of nuclear weapons is real & has stopped NATO in its tracks. He may well fire one tactical NW into remote Ukrainian territory knowing that NATO dare not respond in kind. This could well be the way he achieves a winning settlement whereby he possesses part/all of Ukraine.
>
> 3. Putin has blown a hole in the nuclear weapon Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by demonstrating that every State which wants to assert power should possess nuclear weapons.
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> The last is the most frightening point of all. For too long have the 5 major nuclear powers professed disarmament but continued to update and even re-expand their own (after a 1994 reduction) without addressing disarmament much more aggressively. As Fiona said, the NPT and deterrence theory were a product of a cold war between parties who were open to a defensive logic focussed on ensuring that neither side had dominance in capability but no intent to initiate a nuclear war.
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> So in the cold war both sides had hot lines to each other. This mutually balanced capability (aka. mutually assured destruction) falls apart faced with a character like Putin who is not interested in parity but is actually prepared to use his NWs and, frighteningly, has isolated himself from the ROW and all form of reason. He is essentially the very Rogue State that nuclear deterrence theory never applied to despite the assertions of the pro nuckear weapon lobbyists that it did.
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> It is a matter of enormous regret that Reagan did not seize the day and accept Gorbachev’s offer of total disarmament when they met at Helsinki in 1990. Had he done so Putin would not be able to pose his nuclear threat today.
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> Surely the message from this war is that the only way to avoid use of nuclear weapons is to get rid of them. We must stop saying we cannot put the genii back in the bottle and make every effort to do so. A whole fresh approach is needed on nuclear disarmament. A starter sign of intent would be for NATO States to enter into discussion with the State Parties to the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) while refocussing the NPT at the Revcon due in August.  
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> Like slavery, with determination and strong leadership, a nuclear weapon ban can be effected to join Chemical & Biological WMD.
>
> #ICan #TPNW #whytrident
>
> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiona_Hill_(presidential_ad

Fiona Hill on the Today Programme – Sat 23rd April

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0016pg8