Dear President Putin, "Don't even Pretend to be thinking about starting a nuclear war"
Posted: 28th April 2022
Dear President Putin,
“Don’t even Pretend to be thinking about starting a nuclear war”
Also in this issue:
Common Security Report includes call for no-first-use
Last week, Russia test-fired a new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile. This was accompanied by President Putin boasting that the Russian ICBM had no equivalents anywhere in the world, and would make adversaries “think twice” before making threats against Russia.(In contrast, the United States recently cancelled an ICBM test to avoid any misunderstandings).
This is just the latest of a number of nuclear threats which have been made by President Putin during the current armed conflict with Ukraine, and which have elevated the risk of nuclear weapons actually being used.
Graphic rendition by artist Henandz Krauchanka / Pohodka of the intercontinental ballistic missile tested last week by Russia. On April 25, NoFirstUse Global published an Open Letter to President Putin from Aaron Tovish chronicling the series of nuclear threats made by President Putin during the Ukraine conflict, and calling him out for pretending to be serious about possibly using nuclear weapons.Mr Tovish suggests that the ‘game of nuclear bluff’ being played by Putin not only increases the risk of unintentional use of nuclear weapons, but is also unlikely to serve the purposes Putin intended, which are primarily to control the war, prevent it broadening to involve NATO forces, and ultimately win it.
Dear Putin,
”.... Your predicament is compounded by the poor performance of your armed forces in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance. Your generals probably convinced you that they would make quick work of Ukraine – as long as NATO didn’t become heavily involved. But now, the longer the resistance persists, the more likely it is that your bluff will be called. But it seems you are only digging yourself in deeper.”
Excerpt from Putin, don’t even PRETEND to think about starting a nuclear war! by Aaron Tovish.
Mr Tovish argues that the only way out of Putin’s predicament is for him to de-escalate the situation, including by adopting a no-first-use policy, and work in good faith for a successful, face-saving outcome to the peace talks.”.... Your predicament is compounded by the poor performance of your armed forces in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance. Your generals probably convinced you that they would make quick work of Ukraine – as long as NATO didn’t become heavily involved. But now, the longer the resistance persists, the more likely it is that your bluff will be called. But it seems you are only digging yourself in deeper.”
Excerpt from Putin, don’t even PRETEND to think about starting a nuclear war! by Aaron Tovish.
“In essence your bluff is in danger of being called and, instead of folding, you raise your bet. But pretty soon you are going to run out of room for maneuver... At this point, your best hope for avoiding self-inflicted humiliation is to ensure that the peace talks yield a face-saving result – ASAP. It would also be wise to send a clear signal of de-escalation. Taking a cue from China, you could adopt a no-first-use policy – NO exceptions.”
No-first-use, Olaf Palme Centre and the Common Security 2022 Report
In 1982, an international commission led by Swedish Prime Minister Olaf Palme released a report Common Security: A Programme for Disarmament, which outlined the importance of replacing nuclear deterrence with common security – the notion that nations and populations are only safe when their adversaries are also safe, and that security is achieved through diplomacy, conflict resolution and international law, not the threat or use of force.Today (April 28), the Olaf Plame Centre release a Common Security 2022 Report which brings the ideas of Olaf Palme and common security into the current political climate. The report was prepared by the Centre in cooperation and consultation with the International Peace Bureau, International Trade Union Confederation and a High-Level Advisory Commission on Common Security.
In addressing nuclear weapons, the report reaffirms that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”, highlights the “imperative to prevent the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of a nuclear war” and calls on ’all nuclear-weapon states to establish a firm no-first-use policy.”
NoFirstUse Global is a network of organizations, academics, policy makers and civil society advocates working cooperatively for the adoption of no-first-use policies by nuclear-armed States, the support for such policies from nuclear allied countries, and the implementation of such policies to help achieve broader nuclear risk-reduction, non-proliferation and disarmament measures.