Posted: 29th April 2022
War in Ukraine
Radiation levels in the area where Russian troops dug up contaminated soil near the Chernobyl nuclear plant are still elevated but within a safe range, the UN’s nuclear watchdog has said. “There was an increase (in radiation levels) but this increase is still significantly below the authorised levels for workers in an environment with this type of radiation,” International Atomic Energy Agency boss Rafael Grossi told a press conference following a visit to the site this week.
One of Russia’s top media bosses has weighed in on the nuclear rhetoric emanating from Moscow, saying Vladimir Putin would rather pursue nuclear war than admit defeat in Ukraine. Margarita Simonyan, editor of state broadcaster RT, was speaking on Russian television when she made the comments. “Either we lose in Ukraine,” Ms Simonyan said, “or the Third World War starts. “I think World War Three is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our leader.” She added: “The most incredible outcome, that all this will end with a nuclear strike, seems more probable to me than the other course of events. This is to my horror on one hand…but on the other hand, it is what it is. We will go to heaven, while they will simply croak… We’re all going to die someday.”
Edward Luch writes on ‘The Return of the 20th Centuries nuclear shadow’ in the Financial Times. He notes that while Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats seem to be coming from a place of weakness – he is likely losing in Ukraine and the west hasn’t blinked at his threats – it does mean the nuclear taboo is being broken: “Putin has broken a post-Cuba taboo on threatening to go nuclear. That, in itself, puts us in new territory. Without most people being aware of it, the world is entering its most dangerous period since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.”
The Telegraph also writes that Putin is acting from a position of weakness with Jeremy Warner saying: “Yet Russia’s nuclear sabre-rattling is more a sign of weakness than strength. The latest miscalculation is the decision to cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. This is presumably meant as a warning shot to much larger buyers of Russian hydrocarbons such as Germany and Italy – as in, ‘you’ll be next’. But in threatening as much, Putin only further shoots himself in the foot.”
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said he isn’t afraid of Russia’s nuclear threats, adding that he didn’t believe Vladimir Putin would use nuclear weapons. “I’m very grateful that somewhere under the sea, some amazing men and women are deep underwater, hiding, waiting, in case Britain needs to be protected. That’s important,” Wallace told LBC referring to the UK’s nuclear submarines.
The Bulletin looks at the timeline of Russia’s nuclear threats since the invasion of Ukraine, and the responses by other governments and organisations.
Trident
The Labour party have been releasing targeted Facebook ads attacking the Liberal Democrats over policies like wanting to “legalise drugs and soften punishments” and “get rid of Britain’s nuclear weapons”. Screenshots of the ad surfaced on Twitter on Thursday and were received with much ridicule by social media users. Speaking to The National, Scottish CND said: “It’s important – and the attack ad is a useful reminder – to be aware that the Labour party is not any real opposition to Boris and his increased numbers of nuclear warheads being trundled between Aldermaston and the nuclear weapons base and store at Faslane and Coulport respectively. The Labour party introduced nuclear weapons possession to the UK in the first place, and made the decision to renew the Trident system when they were last in power…Given that the Treaty on The Prohibition on Nuclear Weapons has now entered into force with 60 countries meeting in Vienna next month to start hammering out its nuts and bolts and is already impacting on the UK Government’s plans, with major financial divestment, climate implications and a changing norm about global understanding of what is acceptable and safe, so surely they should be waking up to smell the coffee. The world shudders and holds its breath as the Russian invasion of Ukraine shows us all that ‘nuclear deterrence’ is a failed concept, and the only good news is that unbeknownst to the worldwide nuclear disarmament community, the Lib Dems have joined CND.”
The Business Secretary has called on officials to explore a compromise so US private equity firm Advent can buy one of the UK’s most sensitive defence companies. Advent is looking to buy Ultra Electronics – who make equipment for the UK’s nuclear submarines – through Cobham, another British defence company it owns. The takeover is valued at £2.6 billion. The Telegraph writesthat the deal is controversial as Advent has already sold much of the Cobham business it bought in 2019. However Kwasi Kwarteng’s department said: “In the light of recent proposals by Cobham, the business secretary has asked officials to work with Cobham and Ultra to further explore the possibility of undertakings in lieu of a Phase 2 investigation. He [Kwarteng] will then consider any suitable undertakings and decide whether it would be appropriate to refer the transaction to the Competition and Markets Authority for a more detailed Phase 2 investigation.”
The UK Defence Journal reports on American and French nuclear submarines joining British subs at HMNB Clyde at Faslane. It writes: “The messaging behind this isn’t going to be lost on the powers that be and while the visits themselves may be routine logistics stops, the symbolic image of nuclear submarines belonging to NATO’s three nuclear powers sailing in and out of the same naval base shows serious unity and collective capability.”
Iran Nuclear Deal
An underground workshop has been set up at Iran’s Natanz factory – to make centrifuge parts used in the enrichment of uranium, according to the IAEA. The watchdog said machines to make the parts had been moved unannounced to the site two weeks ago – which also hosts its underground Fuel Enrichment Plant. It’s believed the move underground is to protect the facility from sabotage attacks.
UK Nuclear Energy
Geopolitica looks at the UK government’s attempts to counter Chinese inroads in its nuclear infrastructure. “Alarmed by substantial Chinese stake in the new projects, the UK government has recently begun to mull preventive actions to save the strategic sector getting into Chinese hands. The UK government is reportedly working on a deal aimed at removing China from a £ 20-billion project to construct a nuclear power station on the Suffolk coast.”
The UK government’s plan to bet big on nuclear energy has been thrown into doubt amid reports that France is struggling to keep its own fleet of reactors running. Sky News reports that 27 of France’s 56 reactors have been shut down due to routine maintenance or defects, forcing nuclear firm EDF to buy electricity from the European grid instead. EDF, who are mostly owned by the French state, are heavily involved in ongoing British nuclear projects. “The idea that nuclear reactors are always on is wrong,” said Tom Burke, chairman of think tank E3G and self-described ‘critic’ of nuclear power policy. “We just don’t need [new nuclear plants]. They’re very expensive,” he added.
New-clear Books
Something for the bank holiday weekend. The FT has a nice reviewby KIng’s College London’s Professor Lawrence Freedman, on the new book by Serhii Plokhy – Atoms and Ashes: From Bikini Atoll to Fukushima. He calls it a “A timely and enthralling study focuses on six cases of atomic energy disasters, including Chernobyl, Fukushima and Three Mile Island.”
Best wishes,
Pádraig McCarrick
Press and Communications Officer
Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament