CND Press Roundup Friday 29th July 2022

• The Conversation has an opinion on Russia’s nuclear posturing from Australian-based defence academic Matthew Sussex. Are the threats of using nuclear weapons all a bluff? Probably, says Sussex, but that’s under the premise that the Kremlin is a rational actor: “Having accrued vast personal fortunes and a taste for luxury, Russia’s rulers are likely in no hurry to commit suicide in a major nuclear cascade. However, since there’s no way of being certain, the West must continue to take Russian nuclear posturing seriously – but also with healthy scepticism. Indeed, if the West capitulates to Russian demands due to fears of nuclear war, it will further embolden Putin and show other nations nuclear brinkmanship is appealing. But Russia arguably faces the bigger risk here. If Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine or a NATO member it would also make it very difficult for states that have quietly supported it (such as China) or sought to benefit from its pariah status through trade (like India) to continue to do so. It would also likely engender a broader war that he has tried hard to avoid.”

• Four USAF F-22 Raptor aircraft have passed through RAF Lakenheath on their way to join NATO’s ‘Air Shield’ based in Poland.

• GCOMs and IPB have a report in collaboration with the Centre Delàs of Peace Studies, on how NATO is an engine for spiralling military spending.

Dialogue and Disarmament

• This Guardian editorial picks up on recent comments by Britain’s security tsar, Sir Stephen Lovegrove, that NATO powers need better communication with China in Russia – or risk an escalation to nuclear war. Praising Lovegrove’s call for leaders to continue to seek dialogue, it notes how absent this is from those currently vying for control in Westminster: “The key role in the west will continue to be played by the United States. But Britain is not currently doing its bit. Boris Johnson prefers to grandstand as a fancy dress war leader. Liz Truss is doing a Margaret Thatcher tribute act in the hope of becoming his successor. Rishi Sunak is afraid of saying anything for fear of the Tory right. This week, though, the Commons defence committee accused the government of being ‘arrogant and unwilling to learn the lessons’ of its defence errors, including in Ukraine, while an Institute for Government report describes the Foreign Office as understaffed, with low morale and expertise on Russia continuing to be downgraded. Sir Stephen Lovegrove’s Washington speech may be a welcome piece of strategic thinking at the heart of government. But the people who most need to get his message are the British ministers for whom he works.” The Guardian is also seeking your opinions on the issue, so get those letters in over the weekend!

NPT

• The UN’s disarmament chief spoke to Kyodo News ahead of the start of the NPT review conference next week – the first summit since 2015. Izumi Nakamitsu said she would use the conference to push for concrete results on nuclear risk reduction measures and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and seek to reaffirm the NPT as a pillar of global security.

• Meanwhile, Asahi Shimbun looks at the role Japan’s Fumio Kishida may play in the proceedings. It’s the first time a Japanese Prime Minister will attend the conference and Kishida – who also represents Hiroshima as their MP – is a supporter of a world free from nuclear weapons. While it remains to be seen if he will outline any specific strategy or recommendation in New York, campaigners in Japan have called on him to “open a window of dialogue with nations that have ratified the TPNW.”

AUKUS

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports on plans by China to bring up the AUKUS submarine deal in New York next week. Washington’s special representative for nuclear non-proliferation Ambassador Adam Scheinman said claims by Beijing that the deal violated the NPT would be disputed by Australia, the UK and US: “I know that China at the NPT review conference will criticise the partnership, although I also think that what China fails to do is to recognise that it’s China’s own actions in the region that have led the partners to close gaps in our security…There is no violation of the NPT, and we’ll be very clear about that at the NPT review conference.”

Indo-Pacific Tilt

• The Morning Star reports on the visit of the USS Ronald Reagan to the South China Sea, amid rumours of a potential visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The presence of the nuclear-powered supercarrier drew the ire of Beijing, who said the “US will bear all the consequences” if the trip goes ahead.

Iran Nuclear Deal

• Foreign Affairs magazine has an article on the need for the US to change its strategy on Iran if a new nuclear deal isn’t reached. In the event Tehran begins to ramp up its nuclear programme, or even if sanctions are lifted under a new deal Denis Ross – who has held national security positions in several US administrations – calls for Washington to remind Iran of what it could lose: “The aim must be to restore Iran’s fear of US military action without putting the country in a corner with no diplomatic way out. On the one hand, Iran’s leaders must know that by pressing ahead they will risk losing their entire nuclear infrastructure, which has taken them several decades to develop. On the other, they should understand that the broad sanctions regime—with its practical limitations and chilling effect on doing business with Iran—will be lifted if they give up their nuclear weapons option and stop coercing their neighbors.”

• The Independent covers efforts by European diplomats to get the new Iran nuclear deal over the line.

Nuclear Energy

• The Telegraph and The Times report on the decision facing Germany to extend the lifetime of its three nuclear power stations into the new year, as it looks for alternatives to Russian gas supplies. It notes that while the issue of nuclear power is a “sacred cow” for SPD coalition partner the Greens, sources say the party “could save face by arguing that it was necessary to show solidarity with other European countries.”