Unfold Zero Newsletter: NPT Review Conference ends without agreement: What next?
Posted: 28th August 2022
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NPT Review Conference ends without agreement: What next?
Can new actions/initiatives arise from the NPT deliberations?
On Friday (August 26), after four weeks of deliberations, the 10th Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty concluded with no final agreement.
This was due primarily to the objection by Russia to parts of the draft final document, in particular the condemnation of military activities conducted near or at nuclear power plants including the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which has been occupied and militarized by Russia.
These activities pose severe risks to the integrity of the nuclear power plant that could result in a nuclear catastrophe of a similar or worse nature than the Chernobyl nuclear accident. (See In Ukraine, a Nuclear Plant Held Hostage, NY Times, August 23, 2022).
The draft also affirmed that the security of non-nuclear States must be protected, and that States Parties must refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.
While not mentioning Russia by name, this language was correctly perceived by Russia as condemning their invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine relinquished nuclear weapons, which they possessed at the break-up of the Soviet Union, in return for security guarantees in the Budapest Memorandum which protect their territorial integrity. Russia has violated both the UN Charter and the Budapest Memorandum by its invasion of Ukraine.
Welcoming the principled stand by NPT negotiators
The international community should welcome the principled refusal of the other NPT States Parties to delete these important provisions. Such deletion would have been required to get agreement from Russia, but would have resulted in a weak final document that did not address real nuclear threats of today.
Consensus should not be achieved by abandoning important principles and international law.
What now: New action from a ‘failed’ NPT Review Conference?
The failure of an NPT Review conference to adopt a final document does not necessarily imply a failed conference. Proposals discussed during an NPT Review Conference can take a life of their own despite of – or even stimulated by – the lack of agreed outcome.
This happened for example in 2015. A final document was unable to be agreed. The main dispute was on the proposal to convene a UN conference to establish a Middle East Zone from Nuclear Weapons and other Weapons of Mass Destruction, regardless of whether or not all states in the region participated in the Conference (Israel was not prepared to join the conference, and they were supported by USA and some other countries).
A secondary dispute was on the proposal to start negotiating a treaty to prohibit nuclear weapons regardless of whether or not nuclear armed and allied states joined such negotiations.
Despite no final agreement, the 2015 NPT Review Conference provided the incubation space for both proposals, which were then taken up through UN General Assembly resolutions and processes.
These resulted in the negotiations and adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons at the UN General Assembly in 2017, and in the UN Conference on a Middle East Zone free from Nuclear Weapons and other WMD, which opened in 2019 and will convene annually until it concludes a legally binding treaty to establish such a zone.
What issues/initiatives from NPT 2022 might get taken forward?
Issues/initiatives at the 2022 NPT Review Conference that drew a lot of attention, possibly paving the way for action in other forums, included nuclear risk reduction, non-use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict, the adoption of no-first-use policies and negative security assurances.
The call for adoption of no-first-use policies, for example, found much stronger support than in previous NPT Review Conferences, and for the first time ever was included in draft final documents (up until the final few days). In addition, informal discussions were held during the NPT Review Conference, on a proposed United Nations General Assembly resolution on reducing the threat of nuclear-weapons-use arising from armed conflicts including the Ukraine conflict.
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