Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 15th March 2023

DAN DROLLETTE JR.

Introduction: How to negotiate the China-Taiwan impasse

With much of the world’s attention focused on Russia and Ukraine, it could be easy to look away from rising tensions between China and Taiwan. That would be a mistake, as a variety of experts in various fields attested for in this March issue of the Bulletin premium magazine. Read with complimentary access in the premium magazine.

RICHARD L. GARWIN, FRANK N. VON HIPPEL
How to avoid nuclear war with China

There is a significant probability a war between China and the United States could escalate to nuclear threats. It is urgent that the two countries launch talks on nuclear arms control, both to prevent a nuclear arms race and to reassure each other that both want to avoid a nuclear conflict. ​​​​Subscribe to read more.

LARRY DIAMOND, ADM. JAMES O. ELLIS JR.

Deterring a Chinese military attack on Taiwan 

There is a growing risk of a military attack on Taiwan by mainland China to achieve what the latter terms “reunification.” Taiwan, the US, and Japan must urgently and interactively prepare for this contingency—which is also the best way of deterring it. Read with complimentary access in the premium magazine.

(CLARK) AOQI WU
To reassure Taiwan and deter China, the United States should learn from history

The intricate history between the US and Taiwan suggests that a new and effective US policy toward Taiwan needs to include both credible military deterrence of China and clear reassurances for Taiwan. Subscribe to read more.

JINGDONG YUAN
The United States and stability in the Taiwan Strait

China’s growing economic power, increasing military capabilities, and mounting pressure on Taiwan pose major challenges to US security commitments regarding Taiwan. Subscribe to read more.

LYLE GOLDSTEIN
The trouble with Taiwan

There are many dimensions to the unfolding crisis over Taiwan’s future status—and the wisest US policy is one of realism and restraint in order to avert a disaster of global proportions. Subscribe to read more.

DOMINIKA KUNERTOVA
The war in Ukraine shows that the game-changing effects of drones depends on the game

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the first large-scale, high-intensity war where both sides have extensively deployed military and commercial drones. But do drones really offer a “game-changing effect” on warfare? Subscribe to read more.

JAY A. TILDEN, DALLAS BOYD
Nerds, ninjas, and neutrons: The story of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team

Recently declassified material and other information that has never before appeared in the public domain allow a glimpse into the workings of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team —often one of the first agencies to respond whenever there is an incident involving a nuclear weapon or a nuclear reactor. Read with complimentary access in the premium magazine.

HANS M. KRISTENSEN, MATT KORDA, AND ELIANA REYNOLDS
Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does China have in 2023?

The newest Nuclear Notebook estimates that China’s stockpile now includes roughly 410 nuclear warheads, with more in production. Read with complimentary access in the premium magazine.

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