The Future of Nuclear Weapons, Statecraft, and Deterrence After Ukraine

Posted: 20th July 2023

Worldwide discussion on nuclear deterrence and statecraft reignited with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its threat of utilizing nuclear weapons, drawing questions of how the United States and its allies manage these risks and promote responsible nuclear statecraft.

However, the war in Ukraine is not the only challenge to the nuclear global order. Threats from countries like Iran and North Korea prompt states to rethink their strategies, and non-nuclear countries may feel pressured to develop nuclear arsenals. Multilateral institutions’ roles have changed with the nuclear landscape over time, leading to questions of how best to interpret international law around non-proliferation and non-use.

To address these challenges, Perry World House hosted a workshop in April 2023 on “The Future of Nuclear Weapons, Statecraft, and Deterrence After Ukraine,” bringing together policy practitioners and academics for a day-long discussion.

The workshop report—and accompanying thought pieces from participants—discusses the future of nuclear weapons and deterrence, and prospects for global nuclear power and safety.

Non-Nuclear States and the Crisis of Nuclear Nonproliferation

The Nuclear Discourse after the Invasion of Ukraine: Insights from a Non-Nuclear State by Deryk Matthew N. Baladjay

The Future of Nuclear Weapons, Statecraft, and Deterrence after Ukraine by Eliza Geroghe (forthcoming)

Watching Ukraine, South Korea and Japan Eye Nuclear Weapons. Here’s What the US Should Do by Sayuri Romei (published by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

Nuclear Threats as an Intimidation and Negotiation Tactic: Russia, Iran, and North Korea

Rattling the Nuclear Saber: What Russia’s Nuclear Threats Really Mean by Lauren Sukin (published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Nuclear Threats as an Intimidation and Negotiation Tactic: Russia, Iran, and North Korea by Eunjung Lim

Nuclear Coercion and the Russia-Ukraine War by Alexander Vershbow (published by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

How the Ukraine War Affects Iranian Decision-making by John Ghazvinian (forthcoming)

The Future of Responsible Nuclear Statecraft

The Future of Responsible Nuclear Statecraft: New Era, Old Realities by Avery Goldstein

The Future of Responsible Nuclear Statecraft by Farrukh Khan

The Role of International Institutions and International Law in Enforcing Non-Proliferation and Non-Use

What is the Role of International Law in Preventing the Use of Nuclear Weapons, Specifically by Russia Against Ukraine? by Janina Dill

Using International Law and Treaties to Prevent Nuclear Weapons Use and Proliferation by Rebecca Johnson

Whither Diplomacy? by Nomsa Ndongwe