Report on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on European public opinion and government policies regarding nuclear weapons
Posted: 30th October 2023
In this UNFOLD ZERO Update we:
-
Report on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on European public opinion and government policies regarding nuclear weapons (research from Peace Research Center Prague);
- Invite you to Nuclear Weapons and International Law: The Renewed Imperative in Light of the Ukraine War, an important virtual conference on November 8 sponsored by the International Section of the New York State Bar Association.
European policy on nuclear weapons and the Nuclear Ban Treaty
In 2017, non-nuclear States negotiated and adopted a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which set forth obligations of States Parties to prohibit nuclear weapons in their territories and included the vision for a nuclear-weapon free world. 65 states have ratified the treaty, mostly from Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the South Pacific.
In Europe, only 3 out of the 27 members of the European Union have signed or ratified the TPNW, while none of the 32 members of NATO have signed or ratified.
The general perception in Europe is that the TPNW does not address the security issues that give rise to nuclear deterrence policies.This perception is expressed, for example, in the Policy Recommendation to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament adopted by the European Parliament on October 21, 2020, which notes the TPNW but does not support it, calling instead for a mix of confidence-building and incremental nuclear risk-reduction and disarmament measures that could be taken by nuclear-armed and allied States.
“The European Parliament recommends that the Council and the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy:
”...Note that the adoption of the TPNW by 122 countries, with it now having being signed by 84 states and ratified by 47, is evidence of the desire to achieve the objective of a nuclear weapons-free world; stress that nuclear disarmament cannot be separated from collective security and can only be achieved by taking the strategic context into account, and that it must be part of a gradual process guaranteeing the undiminished security of all while preventing any new arms race…”
Excerpt from the Policy Recommendation on the 10th NPT Review Conference adopted by the European Parliament, October 21, 2020.
”...Note that the adoption of the TPNW by 122 countries, with it now having being signed by 84 states and ratified by 47, is evidence of the desire to achieve the objective of a nuclear weapons-free world; stress that nuclear disarmament cannot be separated from collective security and can only be achieved by taking the strategic context into account, and that it must be part of a gradual process guaranteeing the undiminished security of all while preventing any new arms race…”
Excerpt from the Policy Recommendation on the 10th NPT Review Conference adopted by the European Parliament, October 21, 2020.
Europeans more ‘hawkish’ following the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
The European Parliament policy recommendation (above) was adopted before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to an opinion poll conducted by the Peace Research Centre Prague (PRCP) in early 2023, Europeans have become more supportive of nuclear deterrenceand the NATO nuclear alliance since the Russian invasion, while becoming less supportive of unilateral nuclear disarmament measures such as joining the TPNW or relinquishing nuclear sharing arrangements (USA nuclear weapons hosted in NATO countries). See Hawks in the making? European public views on nuclear weapons post-Ukraine.
However, the PRCP research indicated that public opinion, parliamentary sentiment and government policy in Europe remains strongly supportive of bilateral nuclear arms control between USA and Russia.
This environment makes it difficult to get any traction in Europe behind the TPNW or a broader Nuclear Weapons Convention (as reflected in the NWC Reset Working Paper presented to the 2023 NPT Prep Com), but increases the interest and possibilities for traction in Europe around initiatives like No-First-Use policies, Common Security and Nuclear Disarmament and US-Russia nuclear arms control agreements to reduce nuclear risks and replace New Start (See Russia to Consider U.S. Arms Control Proposal).
Nuclear weapons and International Law: The Renewed Imperative in Light of the Ukraine War
Virtual conference. Wednesday November 8, 9:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.mOrganized by the International Section of the New York State Bar Association
This conference will address the continuing and heightened risks of nuclear war accentuated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threats to use nuclear weapons, and related risks of use of such weapons by the United States.
Following opening remarks by Ukraine’s Consul General in New York, speakers with a wide range of experience in government, the military, NGOs, academia, and think-tanks will address such subjects as risks presented by nuclear weapons and contemporary geopolitical tensions.
Discussion will then proceed to a detailed consideration of the law of armed conflict and other international law applicable to the threat and use of nuclear weapons.
Conference cosponsors:
Catholic Peacebuilding Network, Fordham Law School Center on National Security, Georgetown Law School Journal of International Law, Global Security Institute, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy and the U.S. Air Force Academy, Law, Technology and Warfare Research Cell.
Register for Nuclear Weapons & International Law at the event page