Ukraine attack on Russian early warning radar a big deal
Posted: 26th May 2024
Date:
Sun, 26 May 2024 18:01:39 +0000
From:
Gerry Condon <[email protected]>
Contact the author: [email protected]
Satellite imagery confirms a Russian strategic early warning radar site in the southwestern end of the country was substantially damaged in a reported Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week. This looks to be a first-of-its-kind attack on a site linked to Russia’s general strategic defense. As such, it points to a new and worrisome dimension to the conflict, especially when it comes to the potential use of nuclear weapons.
A satellite image taken on May 23 that The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs of the Armavir Radar Station in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar Krai shows significant debris around one of the site’s two Voronezh-DM radar buildings. These are ultra-high-frequency (UHF) over-the-horizon (OTH) radars that are part of Russia’s nuclear ballistic missile early warning system.
What can be seen in the satellite image aligns with pictures taken from ground level that emerged on social media earlier today, which show severe damage to both structures housing the Voronezh-DMs at Armavir. There is also clear evidence of multiple hits on the radar buildings. It is worth noting that radar arrays are generally very sensitive and fragile systems, and even relatively limited damage can result in a “mission kill,” rendering them inoperable for an extended period of time.
...
The two Voronezh-DMs at the facility are a key part of Russia’s larger strategic early warning network and their loss, even temporarily, could only degrade the country’s ability to detect incoming nuclear threats. There are also concerns about how this could impact the ability of Russia’s overall strategic warning network to evaluate potential threats and eliminate false positives due to possible loss of overlapping coverage in certain areas.
Beyond that, it has been pointed out that the attack on Armavir could meet the conditions the Russian government laid out publicly in 2020 for actions that could trigger a nuclear retaliatory strike. Russia’s early warning network is part of the country’s broader nuclear deterrent posture.
“The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation” include any “attack by [an] adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions,” according to the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence the Kremlin put out two years ago.
All of this follows the start of tactical nuclear drills by Russian forces in the country’s Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine, on Tuesday. The Russian Ministry of Defense had first announced the drills were coming earlier this month and said they were “in response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation.” This appeared to be a reference to French President Emmanuel Macron saying that he would not rule out sending troops to Ukraine in the future.
Ukrainian strike on Russian nuclear radar system causes alarm in West
Analysts warn Kyiv should avoid striking nuclear infrastructure after it carries out another attack on Russian territory
James Kilner 26 May 2024 • 5:38pm
(attached photo credit): A satellite image taken on May 23 showing damage to the radar station Credit: 2024 Planet Labs Inc.
Other Western analysts, though, were more hesitant and said that Ukraine should avoid striking Russia’s nuclear infrastructure.
“Not a wise decision on the part of Ukraine,” said Hans Kristensen, a nuclear arsenal expert at the Federation of American Scientists. “Bombers and military sites in general are different because they’re used to attack Ukraine.”
Thord Are Iversen, a Norwegian military analyst, said striking a part of Russia’s nuclear warning system was “not a particularly good idea… especially in times of tension.”
“It’s in everyone’s best interest that Russia’s ballistic missile warning system works well,” he said.
One of Russia’s most modern radar systems, the Kremlin has deployed 10 Voronezh class installations along the Russian border. Each has a range of around 4,000 miles and can track 500 objects simultaneously.
The strike came shortly after Moscow began tactical nuclear missile exercises in its Southern Military District.
Olaf Scholz has pointedly refused to deliver Germany’s long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, saying he fears potential nuclear escalation.
The US has so far not relented to Ukrainian requests that it be allowed to use Western weapons in cross-border strikes.
Incidentally, this is not the first time Ukrainians target russian over-the-horizon radar systems. Earlier in late April 2024, Defense Express covered the Ukrainian UAV strike that managed to land a hit on an important part of the 29B6 Container radar, a unique asset that the russian military only had in the quantity of one unit.
__
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/world-war-3-fears-after-32891315
World War 3 fears after Russian early warning station damaged in drone strike
Pro-Putin senator Dmitry Rogozin says an attack on a radar station could permit a nuclear response and spark World War 3 after Ukraine launched a kamikaze drone strike. ( Ukraine likely attacked because the facility could give early warning over occupied Crimea. Its main viewing area is seen as the Balkans and the Mediterranean. It is one of ten such radar stations in Russia and may take 18 months to repair. Putin replaced ex-deputy premier Rogozin as head of the space agency, and subsequently sanctioned him last year [from] becoming a senator for United Russia party.)
- 13:56, 25 May 2024
- Updated13:59, 25 May 2024
A “military maniac” could start World War 3 following reports of a drone strike in Russia, Vladimir Putin’s pal has warned.
Dmitry Rogozin, 60, the former head of the Russian Space Agency, says a nuclear war could be imminent following the latest development. Pictures were captured in the aftermath of an alleged Ukrainian drone attack, which showed an early warning station had been damaged by Ukraine.
Rogozin, who is a pro-Putin senator, alleged without evidence that the US had advance knowledge of the attack on the radar station.“We can assume… that it was carried out on Kyiv’s own initiative or on the orders of some military maniac of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who wants to spark a Third World War,” he said.
“However, taking into account Washington’s deep involvement in this armed conflict and American total control over Kyiv’s military planning, the version that the United States does not know about Ukrainian plans to strike Russia’s missile defence system can be discarded.
“Washington will have to answer fully for the past and future crimes of the distraught Ukrainian leadership.” He alleged that after the strike “we stand not only on the threshold, but already on the edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse in the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin”. Rogozin – who as Russian space agency chief played a key role in the testing of the Satan-2 – or Sarmat – rocket, the country’s most powerful weapon due to come soon, said: “Washington has ordered a crime, hiring an irresponsible bandit trying to damage our missile attack warning systems facility, which is a key element of the Combat Command System for Strategic Nuclear Forces.”