The NPT: China's no-first-use proposal and the inadmissibility of nuclear threat or use
Posted: 24th June 2024
From July 22-August 2, 2024, States Parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) will meet at the United Nations in Geneva for the 2024 NPT Prep Com. They will discuss nuclear risk-reduction, nonproliferation and disarmament proposals. Amongst these are calls/proposals for the adoption of no-first-use policies and an affirmation of the inadmissibility of the threat or use of nuclear weapons.
NoFirstUse Global is building support for these proposals, including through a side event on July 22 on Teetering on the Brink – Nuclear Risk Reduction 2024, and through a statement No-first-use and the Inadmissibility of Nuclear Weapons Threat or Use to be presented to the NPT plenary, most likely on July 24. (The statement is open for endorsement by individuals).
The UN Secretary-General’s call for a mutual no-first-use pledge
On June 7, UN Secretary-General António Guterres made an impassioned appeal to the nuclear-armed States to take their nonproliferation obligations under the NPT seriously. In a video message for the Arms Control Association annual meeting, the UNSG warned that the spread of artificial intelligence technology multiplies the threat of nuclear war, and that humanity is now “on a knife’s edge” as dangers to its existence coalesce. He called on the States, in particular, to agree on a mutual pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons.
China’s no-first-use proposal
Since conducting its first nuclear test in 1964, China has pledged to never be the first to use nuclear weapons and has urged other nuclear weapon states to make the same commitment by proposing that they negotiate a no-first-use treaty. This proposal has gained some traction over the past two years, including in the 2023 NPT Prep Com where the proposal was mentioned in the draft Factual Summary of the NPT Prep Com prepared by the Chair. (See NPT States parties call for No-First-Use policies).
However, the proposal has not yet found support by some of the other nuclear-armed States, including the UK and the United States. Last month, for example, the U.S. Under-Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the U.S. has questions about China’s proposal. “Our questions are, quite frankly, how does an idea for no-first-use really fit within their ongoing process of building up nuclear weapons? And how sincere are they?” (See US questions China’s no-first-use nuclear call given buildup, Reuters, May 15, 2024)
Professor Li Bin from Tsinghua University, China, in an article Why a substantive and verifiable no-first-use treaty for nuclear weapons is possible (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, June 4, 2024), argues that the USA and other nuclear armed states should take up China’s proposal. He argues, amongst other things, that in order to address doubts about credibility, “a no-first-use treaty could—and should—incorporate concrete elements. By including confidence-building measures, the treaty would be more substantive than mere symbolism or political posturing.”
US Conference of Mayors supports no-first-use
On June 23, the 92nd Annual Meeting of the US Conference of Mayors adopted a resolution entitled The Imperative of Dialogue in a Time of Acute Nuclear Dangers, which, amongst other things;
- highlights the increasing risks of nuclear war arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and other conflicts amongst nuclear-armed governments;
- condemns Russia’s illegal war of aggression on Ukraine and its repeated nuclear threats and calls on the Russian government to withdraw all forces from Ukraine;
- welcomes the declaration by G20 leaders at the Delhi Summit that ‘the threat or use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible’;
- calls upon the United States to ‘negotiate a treaty among nuclear powers barring any country from being the first to use nuclear weapons against one another.’
From nuclear coercion to the inadmissibility of nuclear threat or use
While there have been apocalyptic threats irrationally celebrated in the past, such as United States Senator Strom Thurmond’s exclamation in 1983 that ‘the righteous will be raptured to heaven’, coercive threats to initiate nuclear war never became explicit state policy of any nuclear-weapon State, stated over and over again and repeated by state media organizations, until now.
In this context the recent statements at G20 and G7 meetings, either in the context of the Ukraine war or better more widely, that ‘The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible’ are welcome and timely. It’s one of only a few rays of hope.
Civil society statement on Nuclear Risk Reduction for the 2024 NPT Prep Com prepared by NoFirstUse Global and the Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction. The statement is open for endorsement by individuals.
While there have been apocalyptic threats irrationally celebrated in the past, such as United States Senator Strom Thurmond’s exclamation in 1983 that ‘the righteous will be raptured to heaven’, coercive threats to initiate nuclear war never became explicit state policy of any nuclear-weapon State, stated over and over again and repeated by state media organizations, until now.
In this context the recent statements at G20 and G7 meetings, either in the context of the Ukraine war or better more widely, that ‘The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible’ are welcome and timely. It’s one of only a few rays of hope.
Civil society statement on Nuclear Risk Reduction for the 2024 NPT Prep Com prepared by NoFirstUse Global and the Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction. The statement is open for endorsement by individuals.
Nuclear-Risk-Reduction statement to the 2024 NPT Prep Com
NoFirstUse Global and the Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reductionhave drafted a statement No-first-use and the Inadmissibility of Nuclear Weapons Threat or Use which will be presented to the 2024 NPT Prep Com at the plenary session dedicated to civil society statements. This will most likely be on July 24.The statement warns about the increased risks of nuclear war, refers to the UN Secretary-General’s statement of June 7 calling for a mutual no-first-use agreement, welcomes the statements from G20 and G7 Summits affirming the “inadmissibility of the threat or use of nuclear weapons”, highlights the no-first-use proposal made by China and the nuclear-risk reduction proposals made by the United States, and calls for both of these initiatives to be taken with the utmost seriousness and made a basis for ongoing dialogue.
The statement, which is open for endorsement by individuals, suggests that a suitable forum for taking forward these proposals might be a United Nations open-ended working group (OEWG) on risk reduction, and asks the NPT Prep Com to consider this.
Endorse the Nuclear-Risk-Reduction statement to the NPT
NoFirstUse Global is a network of organizations, academics, policy makers and civil society advocates working cooperatively for the adoption of no-first-use policies by nuclear-armed States, the support for such policies from nuclear allied countries, and the implementation of such policies to help achieve broader nuclear risk-reduction, non-proliferation and disarmament measures.