Trump is testing the waters on Ukraine to see how far he can go elsewhere

This is especially true of Ukraine, where Trump has ordered the immediate cessation of US arms deliveries and the withdrawal of intelligence sharing. The early signs suggest Trump will succeed in forcing an end to the war on his and Russian president Vladimir Putin’s terms, with European states ill-equipped to make much difference.

 

Such a success will likely embolden Trump and his people to play a similar role in Gaza. The US president has already opened talks with Hamas about Israeli-American hostages, warning the group that it will pay the price if they and all other hostages are not released immediately.

 

Binyamin Netanyahu may be unhappy that Trump is engaging directly with Hamas but will be pleased at the prospect of that war also ending on his and Trump’s terms. In this case, those terms amount to the mass ethnic cleansing of the Gazan population, whom Trump has made clear he wants deported to neighbouring countries, and the Israeli Defence Forces’ continued violent suppression of Palestinians across much of the occupied West Bank.

 

‘Wins’ in Ukraine and Gaza will undoubtedly lead Trump to return to the idea of expanding the United States in the direction of Canada and Greenland. The latter two ‘acquisitions’ may seem way out of reach, but senior Canadian foreign affairs staff have reported that their opposite numbers in the US State Department are thinking seriously about how to pull them off.

 

In the meantime, all seems to be going well for Trump on the domestic front. Trade sanctions on Canada, China and Mexico are being rolled out, with more to follow. His State of the Union Address was welcomed by euphoric Republican members of a deeply polarised joint session of Congress. And his billionaire-ally-in-chief, Elon Musk, continues to wield his axe on numerous federal bureaucracies, sacking thousands of staff without much thought for the vast amounts of experience being lost in the process.

 

Of course, there have been some setbacks. Some powerful government departments have resisted staff cuts, inflation is creeping up, business uncertainty is impacting the status of the dollar, and some key decisions have been overturned by courts. 

But none of these issues has so far been fundamental, and some adjustments are already being made to resolve them, including delaying the implementation of some sanctions.

 

All in all, things are looking broadly optimistic for Trump. For many western European governments, however, the US president is creating political and planning turmoil, which will persist. For supposedly left-leaning governments like the UK’s, this is being worsened still by the concern and deep unhappiness at what is unfolding among progressive elements of the public.

 

UK prime minister Keir Starmer has given up on his early claims to be building a green future with investment focused on renewable energy. Instead, his government’s emphasis is on expanding the military-industrial complex. Much of funding for this will come from savage cuts to the overseas aid programme, which, even with its faults, has been seen as a marker of modestly progressive governance.

 

Put bluntly, the government has embraced a ‘ploughshares into swords’ policy, which it surely would have criticised if it were in opposition and which seems beyond belief to many of the party’s previous supporters. This comes on top of its persistent support for Israel, despite the atrocities being committed against the Palestinian people, and the ongoing and multifaceted clampdown on protest in the UK.

 

In these circumstances, how can we respond to people with a progressive outlook whose feelings about the government’s actions range from dismay to outright depression? One suspects there are millions such people in the UK and very many millions more elsewhere.

 

Even at this early stage, though, there is good work being done by many progressive groups to encourage the government to change its position on both climate and economic issues. Similarly, Rethinking Security, a network of UK-based organisations, academics and activists working for a just and peaceful world, is working to show that another way is possible on the defence front.

 

Richard Reeve, the network’s coordinator, has just published a hard-hitting analysis of the irrelevance of much of the UK’s international security policy, Bridge to Nowhere: British Security Strategy in the ruins of Atlantis. He questions the four assumptions of the current UK posture – the US security guarantee, continued nuclear cooperation, technology superpower status and the US/UK/Australia collaboration – and calls for “thinking beyond the unthinkable”, providing pointers to what needs doing.

 

There may not yet be enough ready answers, but these are all helpful pointers. On a personal level, we must hold on to what we as individuals think is best, whether it be on issues of war and peace, inequality, climate change or other forms of progress under threat. These ideals are being challenged by the likes of Trump and the world’s oligarchies, and we must retain the quiet confidence that there are far better ways forward, challenging the supposed status quo at every opportunity.