Nuclear Proliferation

An Unreliable America Means More Countries Want the Bomb. Without credible U.S. security guarantees, nuclear proliferation is likely to increase rapidly across Europe and Asia. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent foreign-policy moves have alienated the country’s traditional allies in Europe while stirring glee in Moscow. While it’s a catastrophic development for Ukrainian security and democracy, this paradigmatic shift portends much larger risks for global security. The most pressing is the threat of rampant nuclear proliferation that the Trump administration’s actions will elicit. While on the surface it might seem as though a warmer relationship between two of the world’s largest nuclear powers could reduce the risk of nuclear war, the opposite is true. We are on the precipice of a global turn toward nuclear instability, in which many countries will be newly incentivized to build their own arsenals, increasing the risk of nuclear use, terrorist subversion, and accidental launch. Countries like South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are all so-called nuclear latent states that could potentially build nuclear weapons quickly—as are Germany, Belgium, Italy,