U.S.-Iran Relations Under Trump 2.0: Lessons Learned and Likely Scenarios
Posted: 21st April 2025
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Perry World House
On April 12, 2025, senior American and Iranian government officials met directly to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program for the first time since U.S. President Donald Trump took office for his second term.
Iran’s nuclear program has accelerated since the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, leaving little time to prevent Tehran from building a bomb if it chooses to. Trump has threatened military action if a new, more robust deal is not reached, while Iran insists that any new deal must offer Tehran substantial relief from sanctions and security guarantees. But deep distrust and complex technical and political hurdles continue to stall progress.
Against the backdrop of Iran’s nuclear progress, the regime’s regional power has suffered significant material and leadership losses in Yemen, southern Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the swift fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has deprived Tehran of both a steadfast ally and reliable bulwark against its arch enemy, the state of Israel.
In light of these developments, Perry World House convened a workshop in February with leading academics, experts, and policymakers who work on Iran to contemplate the short-to-medium-term future of U.S.-Iran relations. The workshop included discussions on the history of U.S.-Iran relations, the new regional context, Iran’s place in the Trump administration’s inchoate foreign policy, and the role of unforeseen “black swan” developments over the next four years.
The workshop was sponsored by Carnegie Corporation of New York and organized in partnership with Hussein Banai, associate professor of international studies at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School and a 2024-2025 Perry World House distinguished visiting fellow.
Click here to read about the workshop
Back Swan Scenarios in U.S.-Iran Relations During Trump’s Second Term by Hussein “Huss” Banai
U.S. Relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran: Lessons from a Volatile Pastby Malcolm Byrne
A Turning Point in the U.S.-Iran Relationship? by John Ghazvinian
Iran Deal Redux? by Marie Harf
A Riddle, A Mystery, or An Enigma? The Legacy of the Islamic Republic and U.S.-Iran Relations by Firoozeh Kashani-Sabet
Trying to Understand Prospects for Change in Iran by Ellen Laipson
Has Iran Lost the Middle East? No So Fast by Marc Lynch
Low Probability but High Impact Events: Black Swans in the U.S.-Iran Relationship by Richard Nephew
Iran Weakened, Allies Strengthened, Foundation Laid for Diplomacy by Abram Paley
Iran’s Regional Strategy After October 7 by Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar
Iran’s “Look East” Policy: Ideals vs. Harsh Realities by Alex Vatanka