Israel’s attack on Iran - information and talking points

Dear all,

 

As you may have seen in the news, Israel just attacked Iran, targeting its nuclear enrichment, including the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, ballistic missile factories and military commanders. This is very concerning development and major escalation and may be followed by further attacks. The attack is likely an attempt to thwart ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. As of the time of this email, Iran has already retaliated by launching at least 100 drone strikes and announced that it would not participate in negotiations with the United States on its nuclear programme until further notice. The International Atomic Energy Agency does not assess that Iran is currently pursuing a nuclear weapon – Iran has been enriching uranium to levels higher than typical for a nuclear energy program, but there is no evidence that it is developing nuclear warheads, for example. Experts assess that Israel, although it does not publicly confirm or deny that it has nuclear weapons, has about 90 nuclear weapons. As it may be helpful in your response to this news, we have prepared some talking points to be adapted to your local context, as relevant. You can also find resources about Israel and Iran on our website and about the recent attack in this article on our website. All best,

Alicia

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Talking points:

• This dangerous escalation from a nuclear-armed state has undermined the prospects for successful talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and risks a broader war further threatening civilian lives.

• Iran is not currently assessed by international agencies or even the United States to have an ongoing nuclear weapons programme.

• The danger now is that the voices in Iran that have argued the country needs nuclear weapons because of the threat from nuclear-armed Israel will be strengthened, so this attack increases the risk Tehran could decide to develop nuclear weapons.

• Israel is the only country in the region that has nuclear weapons. The Federation of American Scientists currently reports it has 90 nuclear weapons. ICAN assesses that Israel spent more than $1 billion on its nuclear weapons programme in 2024.

• Both Israel and Iran should join the TPNW without delay. For Israel, the Treaty allows for nuclear-armed states to join and then verifiably dismantle their nuclear weapons within an initial period of 10 years. For Iran, it requires all states to uphold their current level of nuclear safeguards.

• Resurrecting the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or negotiating a new agreement to reduce the risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons would be a positive step. But all countries must acknowledge that any country that relies on humanity-ending weapons in their security doctrines only makes the world less safe – and take steps to get rid of them. The 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons offers a path forward to reject these weapons once and for all, multilaterally, and in a verified manner.

• There has also been a long standing effort to bring all countries into a regional WMD-free-zone, which would include verifiable, permanent dismantling of all nuclear weapon capabilities.

• Nuclear deterrence is not a guarantee of peace; it is a justification for having weapons that are a perpetual threat. The practice of nuclear deterrence also incentivises proliferation as countries that feel threatened by nuclear-armed states see value in acquiring their own nuclear weapons.

• The idea that some countries can be trusted with nuclear weapons and others cannot is without merit – as the former UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon said: “there are no right hands for the wrong weapons”. This idea that there are two-tiers of responsible and irresponsible nuclear-armed states is used to justify continued possession of nuclear weapons by all existing nuclear powers, fuels proliferation and drives global insecurity. It cannot hold indefinitely. The longer it persists, the more inevitable it becomes that these weapons will be used – intentionally or by accident.

 

Alicia Sanders-Zakre (she/her)