The Money Fight That Will Shape Europe’s Future

Carl Bildt, Co-Chair European Council on Foreign Relations, former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden.

… Money will certainly shape Europe’s future, as political leaders across the continent are forced to make painful decisions about how to allocate public funds in an increasingly unstable world. …

Meeting all of these commitments will not be easy, especially for governments already grappling with high deficits and rising public debt. My guess is that Northern European countries will reach NATO’s 3.5%-of-GDP defense spending target well before 2035, while Southern European countries – with the exception of Greece – will likely fail to meet it. With France, Italy, and Spain all heading for elections by 2027, the political appetite for the spending cuts needed to increase defense budgets will likely remain limited. …

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/upcoming-budget-fight-will-test-europe-ability-to-face-security-threats-by-carl-bildt-2025-07