CND Press Roundup - 15 January

• Trident out of Scotland
• A new paper by Isobel Lindsay, of the Scottish Independence Convention, argues that Trident removal is critical to the security of an independent Scotland. The paper, an abridged version of which was published this morning in The National, argues: “The exceptional risk factor for Scotland is having the largest concentration of nuclear firepower in Europe and having Trident nuclear submarines based close to our large population centres. What is required is a very clear pathway for the removal of nuclear weapons from Scotland and a formal public notification of this after a Yes vote”
• Bishops for TPNW
• The Church Times carries a report on the TPNW today, emphasising the support of the Archbishops of Canterbury and York, alongside over 30 Church of England bishops, for the treaty. 
• The paper also reports: ‘The general secretary of the Roman Catholic peace movement Pax Christi, Pat Gaffney, said on Tuesday that RC bishops had issued a statement asking the Government to support the treaty — a move that she described as “a huge step forward, because they have habitually said it undermined the existing non-proliferation treaty. Catholics need to write to their bishops affirming what they are doing.”’
• Washington Post editorial 
• The Washington Post’s editorial board has argued that “there are long-overdue reforms that would reduce the dangers by taking nuclear weapons off launch-ready alert. Congress and President-elect Joe Biden ought to examine them.” The WP points out that a portion of US nuclear forces always remain on launch-ready alert: ground missiles can be launched within 4 minutes of a presidential order, sea-based within 12.
• The editorial concludes: “Both Russia and the United States could take nuclear missiles off launch-ready alert, or at least find ways to lengthen the time a president has to make a decision and reduce the chances of a catastrophic miscalculation. While Russia remains adversarial, the relationship today does not warrant a nuclear-alert posture created for a Cold War that ended three decades ago…
• …Any change in alert procedures must be negotiated bilaterally with Russia, and verifiable, but both countries would benefit from backing away from the precipice. There are signs, still tentative, that China is inching toward higher alert levels for some of its nuclear forces. It would be smart for all three nations to retreat from the Cold War madness of hair-trigger alert.”
• North Korea
• Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, has said, following Kim Jong-un’s nuclear announcements earlier this week, that “for North Korea to refrain from provocations, the Biden administration has to consider North Korea as a top priority, conduct a policy review immediately, and then come to a decision – whether that is applying full-on pressure or pursuing an interim deal that does not lead to denuclearisation”, Al Jazeera reports. 

Iran nuclear deal

• Breaches
• The Times reports, citing the IAEA, that Iran is ‘breaching another clause of the 2015 nuclear deal by developing uranium metal, a component of medical research reactors but also of warheads.’ This is a separate decision from the decision to enrich uranium fuel to 20% purity, but may be similarly designed to put pressure on Joe Biden to quickly return to the JCPOA without renegotiations. 
• Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good
• James M. Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has argued in Foreign Policy that Biden’s best option is to immediately return to the Iran nuclear deal. Biden is under pressure to introduced constraints on Tehran’s ballistic missiles, but Acton points out that “the path to such a better deal passes through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’s reconstitution, not its destruction.”

China 

• Trump final shots
• The BBC reports that ‘Donald Trump has taken a final swipe at China and its biggest companies’, with nine Chinese firms added to the Pentagon’s blacklist of those with supposed ties to the Chinese military. The latest round of restrictions, announced yesterday, impact China’s oil giant CNOOC and the phone company Xiaomi (the world’s third biggest smartphone manufacturer) among others.
• Tech war backfires
• According to Reuters, Trump’s tech war has backfired, leading automakers around the world to shut assembly lines because of a global shortage of semiconductors, worsened in significant part by Trump’s targeting of Chinese factories. In the United States, Ford, Subaru, and Toyota have been forced to curtail production. 
• Brussels position 
• Politico reports, meanwhile, that as part of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment ‘the EU has ultimately taken a softer approach to Beijing’s subsidies in a trade deal secured at the end of last year than it did toward Britain in the post-Brexit accord.

NATO 

• Ankara demands on Biden
• Al Jazeera reports: ‘Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar has called on the upcoming Biden administration in the United States to engage in a dialogue with Ankara and to review a decision to sanction the country over its purchase of an advanced Russian air missile defence system.’

Ed McNally