Nuclear - divergence between historical projections and actual developments

Current energy projections often envision an expansion of nuclear

capacities to decarbonize future energy systems. However, this contrasts
with the historic and current status of the nuclear industry, marked by
techno-economic challenges for both light-water and non-light-water reactor
technologies. Regardless, projections of strong nuclear growth have
persisted since the 1970s. This paper investigates the “nuclear energy
paradox” which shows the recurring divergence between historical
projections and actual developments. A data compilation of long-term energy
projections from international organizations such as the IAEA and the IEA
as well as energy system models like GCAM and MESSAGE, as used in the IPCC,
reveal a recurring pattern of high-growth projections for nuclear power.
Such projections often rest on techno-economic assumptions such as
substantial cost reductions. We propose the concept of nuclear imaginaries
to show that these assumptions are embedded into techno-economic visions of
nuclear power development, which shape model assumptions and narratives.
The historic perspective helps to show that nuclear imaginaries may never
materialize and remain in a hypothetical state for decades. Our findings
support decision-makers in making more informed decisions and urge for
caution when interpreting energy scenarios and projections, especially for
nuclear power.

 Energy Research & Social Science (accessed) 30th March 2026 

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629626001477